Why Do Chinese Officials Favor Harris Over Trump for Better Relations?

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Chinese officials appear to lean towards Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for fostering a more stable U.S.-China relationship.

At a Glance

  • Chinese officials show preference for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for stability in relations.
  • Harris expected to follow Biden’s stable and predictable policy towards China.
  • Trump perceived as unpredictable, potentially causing economic tensions.
  • US-China relations forecasted to remain challenging regardless of election results.

Chinese Preferences for U.S. Leadership

Chinese officials slightly prefer Kamala Harris over Donald Trump, informed by the past tumultuous U.S.-China relations under Trump’s presidency. Trump’s unpredictable and emotionally-driven policies amplified tensions between the two nations. Analysts, such as Jia Qingguo and Brian Wong, emphasize that both Democrats and Republicans uphold stringent policies towards China. Harris is seen as more likely to continue President Biden’s stable policy approach deemed navigable by Chinese authorities.

This preference does not erase the challenges ahead, as underscored by experts who predict continued strategic competition and potential economic friction irrespective of the next U.S. administration. Trump’s possible return to office could escalate trade wars and increase tensions, with Harris potentially offering a more predictable alternative.

Harris’s Anticipated Policy Continuity

Harris’s policies are expected to mirror Biden’s, as noted by Wang Yiwei, who observed that Biden’s approach is viewed as “Trumpist without the Trump” by Chinese officials. Her economic policies align closely with Biden, including sustaining the high tariffs on Chinese imports initiated during Trump’s tenure. There is a bipartisan U.S. consensus on a hawkish China stance, making significant policy changes unlikely regardless of whether Harris or Trump takes office.

“Harris will continue Biden’s policies” on China, says Wang Yiwei, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing.”

Analysts expect US-China relations will remain strained, though Harris is perceived as more coherent in military communications. Her support for Taiwan’s self-defense without committing to military intervention reflects a continuation of current U.S. policy dynamics towards strategic competition and containment of China.

China’s Strategic Implications

Associate Professor Jinghao Zhou suggests Harris will pursue a balanced approach of competition, demanding China reassess its strategies, weighing nationalism against economic goals. Chinese authorities are preparing for either outcome, with Trump’s presidency suggesting heightened friction due to his unpredictable policy-making style.

“China will need to reassess its strategies, engaging in more strategic negotiations while balancing its assertive nationalism with economic resilience due to her anticipated shift in approach” – Zhou

While the future of US-China relations remains unpredictable, stability in international diplomacy is a crucial factor for Beijing as they ponder the evolving political landscape across the Pacific. Xi Jinping has yet to publicly express preference, but it is clear that China’s strategic foresight underpins their cautious observation of the U.S. election dynamics.

Sources

1. Taiwan and trade: how China sees its future with the US after the election

2. Zhou Explores How China Might React to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Election Years